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☆ China may 'miss the 5%' growth target this year as downside risks spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.

Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China

☆ China's economic challenges gather steam as new loans plunge, property fears loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Real estate problems persist with once-healthy developer Country Garden now on the brink of default. Real estate dragChina's massive real estate sector, where the majority of household wealth is parked, has reemerged as an area of concern that it could drag down the broader economy. Developer Country Garden announced over the weekend it was suspending trading in at least 10 of its mainland-China traded yuan bonds. The more the government tries to help the real estate industry, the longer it takes for the industry to find a reasonable bottom. State-owned developers have also fared better in terms of recent sales than non-state-owned developers, data show.

Persons: Aly Song, Lu Ting, corporates, Xiangrong Yu, Goldman Sachs, Louis Lau Brandes, Louis Lau Organizations: Bund, Reuters, Nomura, Citi New, Citi, Garden, ., Country Garden's U.S, China U.S, Goldman, Louis Lau Brandes Investment Partners, Brandes Investment Partners Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, China, Reuters BEIJING, Japan, today's China, corporates, State, South Korea

Financial firms and their regulators have cut salaries and bonuses after China's top graft-busting watchdog vowed to eliminate "Western-style hedonism" in the $57 trillion sector. "Wage cuts will intensify deflationary risks and reduce willingness to spend," said Zhaopeng Xing, ANZ's senior China strategist. Reuters GraphicsWEAK BARGAINING POWERUnilateral wage cuts are illegal in China, but complex salary structures offer ways around that. Shao, who sold make-up in the eastern city of Suzhou and only gave her surname for privacy reasons, had a choice to leave her company or accept a 50% wage cut. Their bargaining power ... is weakened so they tend to accept wage cuts," said Aidan Chau, researcher at Hong Kong-based rights group China Labour Bulletin.

Persons: Yao, Zhaopeng Xing, ANZ's, Unit's Xu Tianchen, Zhaopin, Shao, Aidan Chau, Xu, he's, Xiangrong Yu, Ellen Zhang, Marius Zaharia, Liangping Gao, Kripa Jayaram, Kim Coghill Organizations: Communist Party, Financial, Economist, Reuters, Workers, China Labour Bulletin, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Citi, Graphics, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, HONG KONG, Hefei, Suzhou, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing

☆ Wall Street banks cut China's growth forecast after dull second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Aniruddha Ghosh | Roshan Abraham | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

(Reuters) -J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup trimmed China’s growth forecast for 2023 after the country’s economy grew at a weaker pace in the second quarter, with its post-COVID momentum unravelling rapidly. “Market scepticism on China’s growth outlook is on the rise,” said Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing. JPM cut China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 5% from 5.5%. Citi, meanwhile, expects a 20 bps cut in the policy rate and 25 bps in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by the end of the third quarter. Goldman Sachs, however, maintained its 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast at 5.4%, even as they cut their current-quarter growth forecast to 5.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis from 6.5% previously.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, ”, Robin Xing, China’s, JPM, “, Xiangrong Yu, ” Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lisheng Wang Organizations: Reuters, Citigroup, Citi Locations: China, Beijing

☆ China's stimulus could focus on its 'dire' property sector. Here's what economists expect
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China's economic recovery is losing momentum after an initial burst in consumer and business activity early in the year, prompting calls for more policy stimulus to bolster growth. // "The stimulus package could be centered on the property sector, with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to keep up growth momentum," Citi economists led by Xiangrong Yu wrote in a Tuesday note. Don't expect a 'bazooka'Nomura's Chief China economist Ting Lu said "the situation of China's property sector appears dire." The Japanese investment bank doesn't expect a "bazooka" stimulus package but predicts it will be introduced in a cautious manner. They pointed to the latest wording from top policymakers and their emphasis on "security" – how this is an indicator for the scale of a stimulus package to come.

Persons: Qilai Shen, Xiangrong Yu, Ting Lu, Nomura Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Citi Locations: Wuxi, China, Beijing

☆ JPMorgan, Citi raise full-year forecasts for China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Steven Han | Moment | Getty ImagesAnalysts at JPMorgan and Citi raised their full-year forecasts for China's economy after it delivered an impressive first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.5% on Tuesday. Citi economists noted that while services outperformed in the consumption-driven growth for the first quarter, they remain cautious on their forecasts. "The release of pent-up demand during Covid and holiday helped, but we remain cautious on its outlook without big stimulus in sight and the discounts intensifying," Citi economists wrote. With economy stabilization playing out, structural reform could be the next theme to watch," Citi economists wrote. "Risks facing our full-year GDP forecast of 5.7%Y is now skewed to the upside given a strong entry," Morgan Stanley economists led by Zhipeng Cai wrote.

☆ China's economy could recover faster and earlier than expected, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The nation's economy grew 3% for the full year of 2022 — the second-slowest growth rate it has seen since 1976. The nation's economy grew 3% for the full year of 2022 — the second-slowest growth rate it has seen since 1976. Xu expects to see a sharp rebound in the second quarter of 2023 as China continues to prioritize the economy over its zero-Covid policy. China's economy may have already seen the worst of pressures in the final month of 2022, JPMorgan's Zhu said. He added the weakness was the result of uncertainty surrounding the nation's zero-Covid policy and a mass infection that followed its steps of reopening.

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